Reform's strongest showing yet reshapes Greater Manchester politics

Greater Manchester has elected a new mayor, with Labour's Bev Craig succeeding Andy Burnham after winning the mayoral by-election. While Labour retained the office, one of the election's defining stories was the emergence of Reform UK as the city's principal opposition force, with Sian Astley delivering the party's strongest performance in a Greater Manchester-wide contest to date.

Craig secured 309,525 votes in the final round, representing 66.3 per cent of the vote, while Reform UK's Sian Astley received 157,178 votes, or 33.7 per cent. The result followed a second-round count after no candidate achieved an outright majority of first-preference votes.

Astley's campaign marked a significant moment for Reform UK in Greater Manchester. Standing on a platform centred on neighbourhood policing, transparency in regional government, public spending and directing more investment towards towns across all ten boroughs, she introduced the party's message to hundreds of thousands of voters and established Reform as Labour's most significant electoral challenger in the city-region.

The first-preference vote illustrated that shift. Astley secured 111,928 votes, comfortably finishing ahead of every other opposition candidate. While Labour maintained its lead, Reform's result demonstrated that many voters are now looking beyond the traditional political parties, reflecting wider political changes seen across England over recent years.

The election also highlighted the scale of the challenge facing every political party in reconnecting with the electorate. Turnout was 25.14 per cent, the lowest since the Greater Manchester mayoralty was introduced in 2017. More than three quarters of eligible voters chose not to cast a ballot despite the mayor holding responsibility for transport, policing, housing, regeneration, adult education funding and significant economic investment across the region.

For many observers, that figure raises important questions about public engagement with devolved government. The office of Mayor of Greater Manchester has become one of the most influential elected positions outside Westminster, yet millions of residents continue to feel disconnected from regional politics. Whether the low turnout reflected election fatigue, limited awareness of the mayor's powers or wider political dissatisfaction will no doubt be debated in the months ahead.

Astley's campaign also carried wider historical significance. Had she been elected, she would have become the first woman to serve as the directly elected Mayor of Greater Manchester since the office was created in 2017. Although that milestone was not reached, her candidacy demonstrated the increasing diversity of those seeking senior political office within the city-region.

The campaign itself was notable for the issues it placed at the centre of debate. Reform UK argued for greater scrutiny of Combined Authority spending, more visible neighbourhood policing, improved road maintenance and stronger accountability within regional government. Labour focused on continuing the Bee Network, delivering new housing and building on the devolution settlement developed under Andy Burnham. Voters were therefore presented with two distinctly different visions for Greater Manchester's future.

For Rochdale residents, the outcome will have practical consequences regardless of political preference. The mayor oversees Greater Manchester Police through the Police and Crime Commissioner powers, shapes strategic transport investment including the Bee Network, influences regeneration funding and represents the region in negotiations with central government. Decisions taken over the next four years will directly affect communities throughout Rochdale borough.

Although Labour retains control of the mayoralty, the election demonstrated that Greater Manchester's political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive. Reform UK's performance suggests future elections may no longer be defined by a straightforward Labour contest, with Astley's campaign establishing the party as a credible challenger across much of the city-region.

Attention now turns from campaigning to governing. Bev Craig inherits responsibility for one of England's largest devolved administrations at a time of financial pressure, growing demands on public services and continuing debate over transport, policing and housing. At the same time, Reform UK leaves the campaign with increased visibility, a larger regional profile and the opportunity to build on its strongest Greater Manchester result to date ahead of future elections.